Saturday, December 3, 2011

The voting-age population of Hispanics in Arizona is decisive for Obama

The voting-age population of Hispanics in Arizona is decisive for Obama

Democratic activists and Obama campaign officials believe that this year could be different, especially after Hispanic voters flexed their expanding muscle in recent local elections.Thousands of Hispanic residents who had never voted also flooded the polls to help Daniel Valenzuela, a Hispanic firefighter, beat Brenda Sperduti, a white businesswoman, to become the first Hispanic to represent an overwhelmingly Latino district on the Phoenix City Council. Mr. Valenzuela, the Phoenix councilman-elect, said he spent the past year “knocking on the doors of people whose doors had never been knocked on before,” in largely Latino neighborhoods.

The voting-age population of Hispanics in Arizona has surged over the last nine years to 845,000 from 455,000 and now constitutes 19 percent of Arizona residents of voting age. Though Hispanics have not turned out at high levels in past years. Democrats were effective in the state of Colorado when they registered over 200,000 Hispanic Democrats in 2008.

Of course, there are factors working against the president in Arizona. Among these factors is the housing bust, which has hurt Arizona more than most other places. About half of the homeowners with mortgages in the state owe more than their houses are worth, and the same is true of about 60 percent of commercial properties with mortgages.

The Obama campaign, which is counting on Hispanic voters to help carry friendlier territory like Colorado and Nevada, has opened offices in Phoenix, Tucson and Flagstaff in a play for Arizona, and it has helped recruit a Hispanic candidate for Senate.

Fortunately enough for the democrats, the state’s crackdown on illegal immigration has coincided with a boom in its Hispanic population, now nearly a third of the state’s residents.

After Jan Brewer signed the harsh anti-immigrant law, hispanic non-profit organizations combined their efforts in Arizona to register almost 43,000 new hispanic registered voters within a 6 month time period .

In fact, some anti immigrants in the Arizona Republican Party and Jan Brewer have been very instrumental in taking away Independent thinking away from the political equation.

Referring to the decision to open offices in the state, where Obama won 45 percent of the vote in 2008 despite McCain's advantages, Obama's campaign manager Jim Messina said, "I'm completely focused on metrics, and I'm not going to waste money," .... "Arizona is the one state in the country where we didn't play hard in 2008."

Trevor Gervais, 18, who has been canvassing for Obama, said: "Look, he did it in North Carolina and Indiana in 2008 and he can do it here".

There are 800,000 eligible Hispanic voters in the state of Arizona and about 400,000 are registered voters, and the democrats should target the other half who are not. For Obama it’s vital to motivate Hispanics to register and get put on the early ballot voting system in all states that have a high Hispanic population. With these efforts done, and with further efforts to follow, Obama would seem to have big chance of winning Arizona’s 11 electoral votes in 2012.

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